Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 8 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?

8 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 47¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 4

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

37.1¢ → 46.5¢

+25% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares14,452

Combined PnL+$2.0K

No11 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,186

Combined PnL-$338.75

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

777h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 18

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$124.59	16% 427-2305 (2732)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$202.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 44.5¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$77.58
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 31¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$951.6	40% 706-1071 (1777)
NO notgoodluckCTR	Yesavg 38¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$447.97	61% 214-134 (348)
SE segment3CTR	Yesavg 39¢	$600	$980	+$380	57% 12-9 (21)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$980	$817.22	+$14.72	53% 7951-7061 (15012)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 55.8¢	$632.2	$583.96	-$40.98	51% 2129-2037 (4166)
LP lpgb	Noavg 55.8¢	$777.42	$549.48	-$43.79	24% 302-944 (1246)
PU purplegattoCTR	Yesavg 35¢	$384.93	$538.9	+$43.99	50% 6072-6173 (12245)
LI lissartter	Noavg 59¢	$663.44	$288.35	-$73.15	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
AN anoin123	Noavg 72.2¢	$393.25	$277.97	-$164.33	47% 484-550 (1034)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$65.09	$207.69	+$34.3	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$141.9	$141.9	+$26.25
└ No leg	Noavg 44.8¢	$57.74	$65.79	+$8.05
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$195.11	$195.41	+$3.37	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 39.6¢	$289.45	$191.84	+$102.5	50% 1695-1681 (3376)
AN anothercoin	Noavg 57.7¢	$216.35	$191.1	-$25.25	50% 473-472 (945)
macrosteaks	No	$148.51	$148.51	-$22.23	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 27.4¢	$69.75	$130.05	+$60.3	62% 14548-9094 (23642)
GM gm-gg-gnCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$48.3	$78.89	+$30.59	— 7-6 (13)
JA JAMJAMJAM4<$100	Noavg 73¢	$5.84	$49.97	-$29.89	67% 3644-1814 (5458)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$56	$46.67	-$4.76	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	No	$15.48	$15.48	+$0.75	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
CO cowcat<$100	Noavg 65¢	$8.51	$13.69	+$4.57	53% 1588-1422 (3010)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$3,375.38

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$124.59

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

Both legs:

No$1,791.2556.7¢-$202.17

Yes$1,225.1944.5¢+$77.58

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,548.39

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$951.6

Record

40%

706-1071 (1777)

notgoodluckCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,418.57

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$447.97

Record

61%

214-134 (348)

segment3CTR

Yes

Invested

$600

Value

$980

PnL

+$380

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$980

Value

$817.22

PnL

+$14.72

Record

53%

7951-7061 (15012)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$632.2

Value

$583.96

PnL

-$40.98

Record

51%

2129-2037 (4166)

lpgb

Invested

$777.42

Value

$549.48

PnL

-$43.79

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

purplegattoCTR

Yes

Invested

$384.93

Value

$538.9

PnL

+$43.99

Record

50%

6072-6173 (12245)

lissartter

Invested

$663.44

Value

$288.35

PnL

-$73.15

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

anoin123

Invested

$393.25

Value

$277.97

PnL

-$164.33

Record

47%

484-550 (1034)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.09

Value

$207.69

PnL

+$34.3

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

Both legs:

Invested

$195.11

Value

$195.41

PnL

+$3.37

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$289.45

Value

$191.84

PnL

+$102.5

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

anothercoin

Invested

$216.35

Value

$191.1

PnL

-$25.25

Record

50%

473-472 (945)

macrosteaks

Invested

$148.51

Value

$148.51

PnL

-$22.23

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

graynotebook19

Invested

$69.75

Value

$130.05

PnL

+$60.3

Record

62%

14548-9094 (23642)

gm-gg-gnCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.3

Value

$78.89

PnL

+$30.59

Record

—

7-6 (13)

JAMJAMJAM4<$100

Invested

$5.84

Value

$49.97

PnL

-$29.89

Record

67%

3644-1814 (5458)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56

Value

$46.67

PnL

-$4.76

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$15.48

Value

$15.48

PnL

+$0.75

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

cowcat<$100

Invested

$8.51

Value

$13.69

PnL

+$4.57

Record

53%

1588-1422 (3010)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 47%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 19 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

777h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 18

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.5%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$106.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

206.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.