Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 84¢ · $36K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$36.2K

Combined PnL

-$117.63

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 83.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 84%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$35.2K

Total Shares43,506

Combined PnL-$176.22

Yes5 traders

Total Value$968.36

Total Shares5,697

Combined PnL+$58.59

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 82.4¢	$19.0K	$19.0K	-$17.41	72% 257-102 (359)
HO hopedieslast	Noavg 88.7¢	$8.5K	$7.8K	-$495.84	59% 118-81 (199)
FO forinnerpsandr1x11222	Noavg 79.9¢	$7.2K	$7.3K	+$328.7	88% 212-28 (240)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$826.98	$849.92	+$82.32	66% 1482-769 (2251)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 80.4¢	$762.88	$777.27	+$14.39	82% 1758-394 (2152)
vacoolaaa	Noavg 89¢	$357.05	$324.96	-$22.06	68% 124-59 (183)
Trading4FridgeCTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$109.84	$57.74	-$52.1	58% 928-661 (1589)
AO aosdijfCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$23.49	$49.91	+$24.96	9% 48-465 (513)
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$20	$22.78	+$3.77	49% 112-118 (230)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 73¢	$279.61	$11.09	+$12.29	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$5.29	$9.99	+$4.41	47% 2036-2278 (4314)
Donny.T<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$1.36	$1.31	-$0.05	72% 484-187 (671)
aenews2CTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$1.8	$0.8	-$1	60% 1773-1174 (2947)

SlenderMan

Invested

$19,024.77

Value

$19.0K

PnL

-$17.41

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

hopedieslast

Invested

$8,488.91

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$495.84

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

forinnerpsandr1x11222

Invested

$7,239.15

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$328.7

Record

88%

212-28 (240)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$826.98

Value

$849.92

PnL

+$82.32

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$762.88

Value

$777.27

PnL

+$14.39

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

vacoolaaa

Invested

$357.05

Value

$324.96

PnL

-$22.06

Record

68%

124-59 (183)

Trading4FridgeCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.84

Value

$57.74

PnL

-$52.1

Record

58%

928-661 (1589)

aosdijfCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.49

Value

$49.91

PnL

+$24.96

Record

48-465 (513)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$22.78

PnL

+$3.77

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$279.61

Value

$11.09

PnL

+$12.29

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.29

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$4.41

Record

47%

2036-2278 (4314)

Donny.T<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$0.05

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

aenews2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$1

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 84%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 60% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.