Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 24 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

24 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.8¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$11.1K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

1.8¢ → 1.8¢

+2% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

24 of 24 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)24 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes24 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares649,585

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

24 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

149 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$5.3K	$4.2K	+$1.1K	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 2.2¢	$1.9K	$1.4K	-$301.46	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$151.28	38% 20-32 (52)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Yes	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$732.08	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
KnureKnumeCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$983.72	$691.04	-$292.69	48% 400-434 (834)
LinaBellCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$640	$680	+$80	64% 1197-678 (1875)
scottiliciousCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$611.66	$406.81	-$204.84	82% 945-201 (1146)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 0.5¢	$37.79	$170	+$132.21	69% 987-450 (1437)
AO aosdijfCTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$233.43	$128.75	-$97.09	9% 48-464 (512)
mombilCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$134.64	$126.25	-$8.39	55% 1191-966 (2157)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yes	$119.04	$119.04	+$74.84	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$48.92	$112.89	+$63.9	47% 83-94 (177)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$135	$85	-$45	57% 51-39 (90)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$115.54	$75.55	-$35.55	37% 566-944 (1510)
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$30	$68	-$8	53% 906-789 (1695)
CO cocococococoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$25.91	$67.06	+$41.16	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
FA failstoberCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$12.97	$56.63	+$59.96	26% 351-985 (1336)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$13.42	$34	+$36	41% 648-925 (1573)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$445.7	$27.64	+$1.38	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
QualitativeCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$4.41	$25.5	+$21.09	58% 1153-825 (1978)
0X 0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$37.16	$19.33	-$16.13	54% 325-279 (604)
TY TyshaCTR	Yes	$1.0K	$1.7	+$1.85	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.37	$1.23	+$0.86	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
NO NoMoreMisterCTR	Yes	$1.1K	$0.58	+$0.62	76% 8934-2819 (11753)