Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (92%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 8, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 92%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$765.59

Smart Money Entry

0.2¢ → 0.4¢

+52% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares696,930

Combined PnL+$765.56

No1 trader

Total Value$67.81

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$0.03

Yes — 92%No — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

2432h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AO aosdijfCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$992	$1.7K	+$744.42	9% 48-464 (512)
bernardbulletinCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$245.16	$379.75	+$134.88	69% 987-450 (1437)
PL plumbisCTR	Yesavg 0.3¢	$95.11	$105.1	+$10.14	57% 51-39 (90)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$105	-$13.11	64% 154-88 (242)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$67.78	$67.81	+$0.03	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
LO Logan.CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$38.31	$37.05	-$42.88	41% 648-925 (1573)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$4.26	$19.85	-$11.93	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$42.3	$19.53	-$22.77	39% 965-1508 (2473)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$34.7	$15.57	-$19.18	47% 83-94 (177)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$26.65	$14.15	-$13.05	68% 2074-957 (3031)
BigRabbitCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$8.22	$7.19	-$1.03	40% 704-1061 (1765)
VI VivianWardCTR<$100	Yes	$0.07	$0.07	+$0.07	86% 3499-571 (4070)

aosdijfCTR

Yes

Invested

$992

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$744.42

Record

48-464 (512)

bernardbulletinCTR

Yes

Invested

$245.16

Value

$379.75

PnL

+$134.88

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

plumbisCTR

Yes

Invested

$95.11

Value

$105.1

PnL

+$10.14

Record

57%

51-39 (90)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$105

PnL

-$13.11

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$67.78

Value

$67.81

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Logan.CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.31

Value

$37.05

PnL

-$42.88

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$11.93

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.3

Value

$19.53

PnL

-$22.77

Record

39%

965-1508 (2473)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.7

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$19.18

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.65

Value

$14.15

PnL

-$13.05

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

BigRabbitCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.22

Value

$7.19

PnL

-$1.03

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

VivianWardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.07

Record

86%

3499-571 (4070)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 12 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

2432h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.