Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

16 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold No (52%) · No at 92¢ · $74K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 52%

Total Value

$73.7K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 92¢

+17% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 31 top traders (52%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$70.6K

Total Shares76,719

Combined PnL+$8.4K

Yes15 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares38,268

Combined PnL$-6.7K

No — 52%Yes — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

54 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (21 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 62% · 13

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 52% · 21

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SwissMiss	Noavg 60¢	$9.8K	$15.1K	+$5.3K	66% 476-245 (721)
tetrase	Noavg 87¢	$12.3K	$12.8K	+$521.44	61% 839-544 (1383)
TH The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA	Noavg 92.4¢	$12.3K	$12.2K	-$57.97	67% 751-378 (1129)
SirHarryOakes	Noavg 80.6¢	$7.6K	$8.7K	+$1.1K	84% 215-41 (256)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 72.5¢	$6.4K	$6.2K	-$115.6	56% 15372-11923 (27295)
TH thoodr	Noavg 93¢	$5.6K	$5.5K	-$60	96% 631-24 (655)
eCash	Noavg 92.7¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$28.35	68% 331-155 (486)
MO Monopoly_Money	Noavg 32.6¢	$502.53	$2.3K	+$1.5K	63% 159-95 (254)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 89¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$45	59% 1027-717 (1744)
Roflan-ludoman	Noavg 86¢	$752.32	$804.8	+$52.49	62% 649-396 (1045)
AO aosdijfCTR	Yesavg 6.8¢	$633.95	$747.2	+$113.25	9% 48-465 (513)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 86.5¢	$742.07	$742.24	+$0.17	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR	Yesavg 45.8¢	$3.7K	$640	$-3.0K	63% 353-204 (557)
88 881112	Noavg 62¢	$354.31	$525.74	+$171.44	38% 567-944 (1511)
debasedCTR	Yesavg 43.6¢	$2.2K	$504.72	$-1.7K	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
PaddyAlphaCTR	Yesavg 30.5¢	$553.29	$425.27	-$128.01	59% 986-684 (1670)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Yesavg 30.3¢	$539.99	$320	-$219.99	45% 112-138 (250)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 91.5¢	$176.72	$175.79	-$0.93	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Yesavg 47.1¢	$769.99	$160	-$609.99	57% 766-585 (1351)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 49.1¢	$528.77	$101.33	-$427.44	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
TT tttt123<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$74.62	$98.25	+$23.63	72% 1535-585 (2120)
JE Jest55<$100	Noavg 59.8¢	$44.84	$68.99	+$24.15	75% 1028-338 (1366)
BT BTCGambler247CTR	Yesavg 32¢	$192	$48	-$144	47% 217-240 (457)
cambridgeisaacCTR	Yesavg 38.4¢	$200	$41.66	-$158.34	57% 1114-837 (1951)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR	Yesavg 27.1¢	$63.49	$40.61	-$22.88	66% 955-482 (1437)

SwissMiss

Invested

$9,849.74

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

66%

476-245 (721)

tetrase

Invested

$12,250.5

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$521.44

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA

Invested

$12,272.83

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$57.97

Record

67%

751-378 (1129)

SirHarryOakes

Invested

$7,621.09

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

84%

215-41 (256)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$6,353.83

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$115.6

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

thoodr

Invested

$5,580

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$60

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

eCash

Invested

$3,940.78

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$28.35

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

Monopoly_Money

Invested

$502.53

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$1,335

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$45

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

Roflan-ludoman

Invested

$752.32

Value

$804.8

PnL

+$52.49

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

aosdijfCTR

Yes

Invested

$633.95

Value

$747.2

PnL

+$113.25

Record

48-465 (513)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$742.07

Value

$742.24

PnL

+$0.17

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,664.13

Value

$640

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

881112

Invested

$354.31

Value

$525.74

PnL

+$171.44

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

debasedCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,180.37

Value

$504.72

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

PaddyAlphaCTR

Yes

Invested

$553.29

Value

$425.27

PnL

-$128.01

Record

59%

986-684 (1670)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Yes

Invested

$539.99

Value

$320

PnL

-$219.99

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

ghorrock

Invested

$176.72

Value

$175.79

PnL

-$0.93

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

EatprayloveCTR

Yes

Invested

$769.99

Value

$160

PnL

-$609.99

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$528.77

Value

$101.33

PnL

-$427.44

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

tttt123<$100

Invested

$74.62

Value

$98.25

PnL

+$23.63

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

Jest55<$100

Invested

$44.84

Value

$68.99

PnL

+$24.15

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

BTCGambler247CTR

Yes

Invested

$192

Value

$48

PnL

-$144

Record

47%

217-240 (457)

cambridgeisaacCTR

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$41.66

PnL

-$158.34

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

PutsOnPeaceCTR

Yes

Invested

$63.49

Value

$40.61

PnL

-$22.88

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 31 top traders (52%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

54 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (21 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 62% · 13

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 52% · 21

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.0%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.