Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 92¢ · $61K held · ends Nov 4

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$61.0K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 91.5¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 92%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$59.4K

Total Shares65,182

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares22,481

Combined PnL-$221.88

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR Trump2028	Noavg 92.7¢	$26.9K	$26.4K	+$106.08	82% 402-89 (491)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Noavg 81.2¢	$7.4K	$8.3K	+$932.83	61% 203-132 (335)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Noavg 89.8¢	$4.6K	$7.5K	+$131.15	38% 20-32 (52)
mrworldwide	Noavg 91¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$72	69% 804-359 (1163)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 87¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$199.98	85% 311-57 (368)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 92¢	$588.95	$2.9K	+$75.09	72% 6827-2621 (9448)
BA balerinacapuchina	Noavg 91¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$60	72% 176-70 (246)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 90.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$20	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
scottilicious	Noavg 92¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$9.26	82% 945-201 (1146)
ImJustKen	Noavg 70.7¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$371.86	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR	Yesavg 7.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$58.67	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 90.8¢	$116.64	$117.28	+$0.64	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$348.74	$100.15	-$129.63	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
Ryxon21<$100	Noavg 63¢	$60.39	$90.09	+$29.7	71% 318-130 (448)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 8.4¢	$170.03	$60.38	-$30.51	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
HO HotDogs<$100	Noavg 75¢	$27.65	$33.54	+$6.63	94% 442-28 (470)
AngryRhino<$100	Noavg 88¢	$30.01	$31.03	+$1.71	69% 133-59 (192)
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$24.56	$21.49	-$3.07	54% 8322-7007 (15329)

Trump2028

Invested

$26,869.98

Value

$26.4K

PnL

+$106.08

Record

82%

402-89 (491)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Invested

$7,374.49

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$932.83

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Contestable-Parfait

Invested

$4,612.74

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$131.15

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

mrworldwide

Invested

$3,276

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$72

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$2,899.71

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$199.98

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$588.95

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$75.09

Record

72%

6827-2621 (9448)

balerinacapuchina

Invested

$2,730

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$60

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,800.01

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$20

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

scottilicious

Invested

$1,703.5

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$9.26

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

ImJustKen

Invested

$1,176.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$371.86

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,453.74

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$58.67

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

ghorrock

Invested

$116.64

Value

$117.28

PnL

+$0.64

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$348.74

Value

$100.15

PnL

-$129.63

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Ryxon21<$100

Invested

$60.39

Value

$90.09

PnL

+$29.7

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$170.03

Value

$60.38

PnL

-$30.51

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

HotDogs<$100

Invested

$27.65

Value

$33.54

PnL

+$6.63

Record

94%

442-28 (470)

AngryRhino<$100

Invested

$30.01

Value

$31.03

PnL

+$1.71

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

sfkjbsr457CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.56

Value

$21.49

PnL

-$3.07

Record

54%

8322-7007 (15329)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 92%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.