Will the Dallas Cowboys make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 68¢

+18% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,003

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$75.74

Total Shares220

Combined PnL-$31.83

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

666h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
extractive-manatee	Noavg 56¢	$37.21	$1.2K	+$1.2K	33% 539-1081 (1620)
TimeTravelerARB<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$392.24	$405.67	+$13.43	41% 2003-2843 (4846)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.5¢	$249	$207	-$42
└ No leg	Noavg 47.2¢	$143.24	$198.67	+$55.43
0X 0x53eCc53E7	Noavg 66.5¢	$387.36	$390.1	+$2.74	43% 470-622 (1092)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 66¢	$432.11	$334.05	-$7.7	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
BA banepir	Noavg 46¢	$214.91	$306.02	+$91.1	49% 459-477 (936)
AB ABC12345654321	Noavg 64¢	$373.36	$301.27	+$5.17	50% 1695-1681 (3376)
JustADonk	Noavg 41.3¢	$100.15	$158.82	+$58.67	55% 920-756 (1676)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 48.7¢	$107.58	$75.74	-$31.83	52% 1173-1079 (2252)
CUTJALENHURTS<$100	Noavg 46¢	$18.4	$26.2	+$7.8	52% 5926-5526 (11452)
ND ndb1<$100	Noavg 55¢	$4.57	$5.44	+$0.87	66% 925-482 (1407)

extractive-manatee

Invested

$37.21

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

33%

539-1081 (1620)

TimeTravelerARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$392.24

Value

$405.67

PnL

+$13.43

Record

41%

2003-2843 (4846)

Both legs:

Yes$24941.5¢-$42

No$143.2447.2¢+$55.43

0x53eCc53E7

Invested

$387.36

Value

$390.1

PnL

+$2.74

Record

43%

470-622 (1092)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$432.11

Value

$334.05

PnL

-$7.7

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

banepir

Invested

$214.91

Value

$306.02

PnL

+$91.1

Record

49%

459-477 (936)

ABC12345654321

Invested

$373.36

Value

$301.27

PnL

+$5.17

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

JustADonk

Invested

$100.15

Value

$158.82

PnL

+$58.67

Record

55%

920-756 (1676)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$107.58

Value

$75.74

PnL

-$31.83

Record

52%

1173-1079 (2252)

CUTJALENHURTS<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$26.2

PnL

+$7.8

Record

52%

5926-5526 (11452)

ndb1<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$5.44

PnL

+$0.87

Record

66%

925-482 (1407)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

666h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

8 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.