Blues vs. Rangers

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Rangers (31%) · Rangers at 54¢ · $35K held · ends Nov 4

Blues47¢Rangers53¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rangers

Consensus Traders

Rangers 31%

Total Value

$35.2K

Combined PnL

$286.37

Smart Money Entry

52.4¢ → 53.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Blues47%

Rangers54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rangers4 traders

Total Value$25.8K

Total Shares48,359

Combined PnL+$408.05

Blues9 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares20,169

Combined PnL-$121.67

Rangers — 31%Blues — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Blues) and the top 1000 (6 on Rangers) disagree here.

whaleRangers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBlues 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBlues 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rangers 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Rangersavg 52.6¢	$21.6K	$22.0K	+$374.26	45% 89-111 (200)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Bluesavg 48.5¢	$3.6K	$3.5K	-$107.11	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
RO royalestake	Rangersavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$0	47% 392-445 (837)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bluesavg 46.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$5.85	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Bluesavg 47¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0	51% 3571-3496 (7067)
RO roldy	Rangersavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$33.6	51% 1437-1364 (2801)
SE sentrioCTR	Bluesavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
GA gagarin59CTR	Bluesavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0	51% 766-737 (1503)
CO cocococococoCTR	Bluesavg 48¢	$547.6	$536.49	-$5.4	52% 1671-1542 (3213)
nigiri99CTR	Bluesavg 47¢	$435.8	$431.15	-$4.65	46% 8245-9621 (17866)
0xheavy888CTR	Bluesavg 46.5¢	$186	$186	+$0	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Bluesavg 46¢	$124.2	$125.55	+$1.35	53% 2374-2064 (4438)
GH ghorrock<$100	Rangersavg 52.5¢	$40.48	$40.67	+$0.19	58% 18597-13721 (32318)

chubbytoro

Rangers

Invested

$21,603.06

Value

$22.0K

PnL

+$374.26

Record

45%

89-111 (200)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Blues

Invested

$3,559.26

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$107.11

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

royalestake

Rangers

Invested

$2,599.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

392-445 (837)

VeryLucky888CTR

Blues

Invested

$1,321.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$5.85

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

HerdoniaCTR

Blues

Invested

$1,307.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3571-3496 (7067)

roldy

Rangers

Invested

$1,142.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$33.6

Record

51%

1437-1364 (2801)

sentrioCTR

Blues

Invested

$1,107.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

gagarin59CTR

Blues

Invested

$1,000.15

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

766-737 (1503)

cocococococoCTR

Blues

Invested

$547.6

Value

$536.49

PnL

-$5.4

Record

52%

1671-1542 (3213)

nigiri99CTR

Blues

Invested

$435.8

Value

$431.15

PnL

-$4.65

Record

46%

8245-9621 (17866)

0xheavy888CTR

Blues

Invested

$186

Value

$186

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Blues

Invested

$124.2

Value

$125.55

PnL

+$1.35

Record

53%

2374-2064 (4438)

ghorrock<$100

Rangers

Invested

$40.48

Value

$40.67

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

4 of 13 top traders (31%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Rangers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Blues) and the top 1000 (6 on Rangers) disagree here.

whaleRangers 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBlues 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedBlues 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rangers 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rangers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.