Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 69¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 16

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.8K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 68.5¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$36.9K

Total Shares54,200

Combined PnL+$1.0K

No7 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares18,793

Combined PnL+$285.91

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

319h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
eCash	Yesavg 67.1¢	$28.6K	$29.4K	+$805.41	68% 331-155 (486)
BigMackyG	Yesavg 66.7¢	$5.5K	$5.6K	+$61.8	20% 108-423 (531)
BR browneCTR	Noavg 33¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$50	71% 173-70 (243)
MEPPARB<$100	Noavg 34.9¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$143.37	64% 633-352 (985)
└ No leg	Noavg 34.9¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$207.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$916.17	$973.44	+$64.42
CA cashyCTR	Noavg 24¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$472.18	71% 611-251 (862)
classifiedCTR	Noavg 28.2¢	$831.92	$741.9	-$90.01	58% 844-614 (1458)
Udonsan	Yesavg 63¢	$620.4	$664.36	+$43.97	79% 250-67 (317)
BI BikesAreTheBikes	Yesavg 63.2¢	$1.1K	$609.49	+$95.32	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
siick	Yesavg 67¢	$253.26	$257.04	+$1.89	57% 768-580 (1348)
SE SeniorLaghetto	Yesavg 62.6¢	$228.14	$229.83	+$1.69	69% 404-180 (584)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 29.4¢	$188.7	$174.54	-$14.16	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 70.6¢	$121.4	$116.94	-$4.46	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 29.6¢	$65.46	$64.29	-$1.17	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
LI lissartterCTR	Noavg 35¢	$819.37	$38.79	-$29.67	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$28	$34	+$5.75	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
Tenebrus7<$100	Yesavg 64.2¢	$16.09	$17.5	+$1.42	73% 2953-1072 (4025)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Noavg 34.6¢	$17.27	$16.01	-$1.25	50% 357-357 (714)

eCash

Yes

Invested

$28,571.67

Value

$29.4K

PnL

+$805.41

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

BigMackyG

Yes

Invested

$5,451.61

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$61.8

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

browneCTR

Invested

$3,300

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

71%

173-70 (243)

MEPPARB<$100

Invested

$3,033.8

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$143.37

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

Both legs:

No$2,124.7834.9¢-$207.79

Yes$916.1764¢+$64.42

cashyCTR

Invested

$1,333.2

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$472.18

Record

71%

611-251 (862)

classifiedCTR

Invested

$831.92

Value

$741.9

PnL

-$90.01

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

Udonsan

Yes

Invested

$620.4

Value

$664.36

PnL

+$43.97

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

BikesAreTheBikes

Yes

Invested

$1,101.38

Value

$609.49

PnL

+$95.32

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

siick

Yes

Invested

$253.26

Value

$257.04

PnL

+$1.89

Record

57%

768-580 (1348)

SeniorLaghetto

Yes

Invested

$228.14

Value

$229.83

PnL

+$1.69

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$188.7

Value

$174.54

PnL

-$14.16

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$121.4

Value

$116.94

PnL

-$4.46

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$65.46

Value

$64.29

PnL

-$1.17

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

lissartterCTR

Invested

$819.37

Value

$38.79

PnL

-$29.67

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$28

Value

$34

PnL

+$5.75

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

Tenebrus7<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.09

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$1.42

Record

73%

2953-1072 (4025)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Invested

$17.27

Value

$16.01

PnL

-$1.25

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

319h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 63% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.5%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.