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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Flaznorpjoseph00677mildwindow27
Record (consensus markets)58% (4521–3296, n=7817)52% (6519–6017, n=12536)45% (10–12, n=22)36% (5188–9183, n=14371)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$3.5M$5.3M-$149K
Tracked asPM monthly #67PM monthly #24PM monthly #2PM monthly #336
Sides with the consensus50% (5 of 10 open)70% (203 of 291 open)no open consensus position56% (607 of 1077 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134Other Sports −13 pts, n=22—Weather −4 pts, n=1229
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%42% of 4985 at avg 45¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)29% (won 11% of 465)12% (won 0% of 2)54% (won 1% of 2673)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)16% (won 40% of 255)6% (won 0% of 1)2% (won 43% of 124)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)16% (won 62% of 260)65% (won 73% of 11)4% (won 55% of 214)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)39% (won 94% of 637)18% (won 67% of 3)40% (won 96% of 1974)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Flaznorpjoseph00677mildwindow27
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $51K——No $1
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $105——No $24
FK Crvena zvezda vs. Inter Club d'Escaldes: O/U 3.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $25KUnder $1.1K——
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. Rider Broncs
same side · consensus Rider Broncs
Rider Broncs $2.9KRider Broncs $171——
Taranto: Philip Henning vs Carlo Alberto Caniato
same side · consensus Carlo Alberto Caniato
Philip Henning $1.6KPhilip Henning $1.0K——