Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Flaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghighplusti
Record (consensus markets)48% (62–68, n=130)75% (739–246, n=985)44% (193–242, n=435)42% (14–19, n=33)
Consensus PnL-$290K$69K$17K$22K
Tracked asPM monthly #9PM monthly #14PM monthly #45was PM monthly #883
Sides with the consensus29% (2 of 7 open)68% (76 of 111 open)67% (8 of 12 open)50% (1 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +42 pts n=29, ROI +39%
  • Tennis +37 pts n=16, ROI +37%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Soccer −8 pts, n=40——
Settled positions, side won97% of 67 at avg 60¢, ROI +35%44% of 88 at avg 51¢, ROI −23%100% of 134 at avg 51¢, ROI +47%100% of 14 at avg 50¢, ROI +50%
Entries under 30¢1% (won 0% of 1)34% (won 10% of 30)5% (won 100% of 7)0%
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 94% of 17)19% (won 29% of 17)38% (won 100% of 51)43% (won 100% of 6)
Entries 50–70¢49% (won 100% of 33)13% (won 55% of 11)50% (won 100% of 67)57% (won 100% of 8)
Entries 70¢ and up24% (won 100% of 16)34% (won 83% of 30)7% (won 100% of 9)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

3 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465Flaznorpkeeptheblueflagflyinghighplusti
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Alexander Shevchenko vs Casper Ruud
opposite sides · consensus Casper Ruud
—Alexander Shevchenko $958Casper Ruud $5.2K—
WTA Finals, Group B: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova
opposite sides · consensus Elina Svitolina
—Karolina Muchova $2.3KElina Svitolina $447—
W35 Heraklion: Anna Petkovic vs Tina Nadine Smith
opposite sides · consensus Anna Petkovic
—Anna Petkovic $601Tina Nadine Smith $917—
Monastir: Kilian Feldbausch vs Tiago Pereira
same side · consensus Tiago Pereira
Kilian Feldbausch $110KKilian Feldbausch $947——
BNP Paribas Nordic Open (Doubles): Pavlasek/Rikl vs Arends/Johnson
same side · consensus Pavlasek/Rikl
—Pavlasek/Rikl $4.1KPavlasek/Rikl $1.9K—
WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva
same side · consensus Aryna Sabalenka
—Aryna Sabalenka $984Aryna Sabalenka $3.6K—