Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

sainttroplay: no tracked trader by that name or wallet.

Traders side by side
0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616BreakTheBankndb1
Record (consensus markets)43% (2729–3658, n=6387)45% (576–717, n=1293)63% (992–576, n=1568)
Consensus PnL$96K$7.9M$4.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #494PM monthly #3PM monthly #96
Sides with the consensus58% (32 of 55 open)88% (22 of 25 open)69% (52 of 75 open)
Strongest topics
  • Weather +2 pts n=149, ROI +2%
  • NBA +8 pts n=16, ROI +8%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=98, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
Weakest topicMentions ±0 pts, n=1011—NFL −9 pts, n=144
Settled positions, side won38% of 3485 at avg 38¢, ROI −3%97% of 582 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%64% of 1398 at avg 64¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢54% (won 3% of 1867)10% (won 82% of 60)13% (won 15% of 186)
Entries 30–50¢14% (won 43% of 490)35% (won 98% of 204)19% (won 39% of 267)
Entries 50–70¢4% (won 62% of 147)35% (won 100% of 202)23% (won 58% of 326)
Entries 70¢ and up28% (won 97% of 981)20% (won 100% of 116)44% (won 94% of 619)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616BreakTheBankndb1
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $1.0K—No $17
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $214—Yes $551
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—No $409KNo $337K