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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187BreakTheBankndb1sainttroplay
Record (consensus markets)13% (878–5971, n=6849)45% (542–652, n=1194)66% (868–456, n=1324)71% (10–4, n=14)
Consensus PnL$1.9K$11.1M$4.1M$4.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #926PM monthly #1PM monthly #69was PM monthly #11
Sides with the consensus29% (2 of 7 open)36% (32 of 89 open)73% (16 of 22 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=139, ROI +49%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
Weakest topicTennis −3 pts, n=514—NFL −10 pts, n=132—
Settled positions, side won13% of 3633 at avg 14¢, ROI −1%97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52%
Entries under 30¢82% (won 3% of 2987)10% (won 79% of 58)13% (won 16% of 160)0%
Entries 30–50¢8% (won 35% of 283)36% (won 98% of 200)20% (won 39% of 252)50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 50–70¢5% (won 64% of 188)35% (won 99% of 194)24% (won 57% of 306)50% (won 100% of 5)
Entries 70¢ and up5% (won 83% of 175)19% (won 100% of 107)43% (won 93% of 540)0%

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x952718dF56Ab7955E0A0121a9E47fa8f52B6888b-1787761374187BreakTheBankndb1sainttroplay
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $950KYes $300K—
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $265KYes $574K—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $77KNo $719K—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—No $187KYes $462K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $287KNo $379—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $74KNo $823—
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $280No $7.0K—
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $183KYes $2.9M—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $59KYes $273—