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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
1000monkeysBreakTheBankndb1UpTheBlues
Record (consensus markets)57% (366–276, n=642)46% (560–667, n=1227)65% (889–469, n=1358)50% (19558–19625, n=39183)
Consensus PnL$94K$9.4M$4.2M$3.1M
Tracked asPM monthly #896PM monthly #2PM monthly #148PM monthly #8
Sides with the consensus75% (3 of 4 open)60% (15 of 25 open)73% (33 of 45 open)67% (83 of 123 open)
Strongest topics
  • Crypto +34 pts n=473, ROI +52%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • MLB +59 pts n=918, ROI +58%
  • Esports +62 pts n=67, ROI +63%
  • MMA +63 pts n=36, ROI +63%
Weakest topic——NFL −9 pts, n=139—
Settled positions, side won68% of 473 at avg 34¢, ROI +52%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%100% of 38237 at avg 67¢, ROI +37%
Entries under 30¢40% (won 35% of 188)11% (won 80% of 61)13% (won 15% of 168)7% (won 99% of 2623)
Entries 30–50¢38% (won 87% of 181)35% (won 98% of 203)20% (won 39% of 256)21% (won 100% of 7839)
Entries 50–70¢20% (won 95% of 94)35% (won 100% of 201)24% (won 58% of 314)22% (won 100% of 8452)
Entries 70¢ and up2% (won 100% of 10)20% (won 100% of 115)43% (won 93% of 550)51% (won 100% of 19323)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.