← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | RN1 | beachboy4 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 47% (6810–7564, n=14374) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $323K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #167 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (110 of 147 open) | 68% (13 of 19 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −5 pts, n=1794 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 50% of 15740 at avg 53¢, ROI +1% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 33% (won 5% of 5199) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 11% (won 32% of 1681) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 52% of 1780) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 45% (won 86% of 7080) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ArmageddonRewardsBilly | RN1 | beachboy4 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.4K | — | Yes $68 | — |