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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BikesAreTheBikes | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 26% (610–1728, n=2338) | 45% (537–652, n=1189) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 48% (12984–14343, n=27327) |
| Consensus PnL | $60K | $10.6M | $4.4M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #541 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 57% (48 of 84 open) | 85% (53 of 62 open) | no open consensus position | 33% (1 of 3 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | Weather −5 pts, n=16 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 48% of 1358 at avg 35¢, ROI +9% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 57% (won 19% of 774) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 66% of 157) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 85% of 151) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 97% of 276) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BikesAreTheBikes | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $130 | Yes $14K | — | — |