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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankJhonAlexanderHinestrozajoseph00677primm
Record (consensus markets)41% (589–853, n=1442)54% (1409–1220, n=2629)43% (10–13, n=23)50% (1248–1261, n=2509)
Consensus PnL$7.7M$233K$3.3M$3.6M
Tracked asPM monthly #1PM monthly #176PM monthly #8PM monthly #47
Sides with the consensus88% (30 of 34 open)0% (0 of 1 open)no open consensus position73% (8 of 11 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=142, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=107, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=282, ROI +37%
  • Esports +44 pts n=102, ROI +43%
  • Soccer +16 pts n=1613, ROI +8%
  • NFL +20 pts n=29, ROI +15%
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won97% of 593 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%75% of 1749 at avg 58¢, ROI +10%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 82% of 60)12% (won 47% of 217)12% (won 0% of 2)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 212)25% (won 64% of 443)6% (won 0% of 1)41% (won 99% of 421)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 205)33% (won 79% of 580)65% (won 73% of 11)49% (won 99% of 508)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 116)29% (won 93% of 509)18% (won 67% of 3)5% (won 100% of 47)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankJhonAlexanderHinestrozajoseph00677primm
Packers vs. Patriots
opposite sides · consensus Packers
—Patriots $1.2K—Packers $87K
Spread: Texans (-4.5)
opposite sides · consensus Texans
Chargers $2.4K——Texans $2.7K