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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | graynotebook19 | joseph00677 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 58% (9765–6966, n=16731) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 47% (14377–16003, n=30380) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.0M | $47K | $5.6M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #165 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #18 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 57% (64 of 113 open) | 78% (101 of 129 open) | no open consensus position | 50% (37 of 74 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | Elections −3 pts, n=1186 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 37% of 5132 at avg 39¢, ROI −2% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 59% (won 1% of 3042) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 2% (won 38% of 125) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 5% (won 60% of 240) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 34% (won 96% of 1725) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BreakTheBank | graynotebook19 | joseph00677 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $30K | No $95 | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $3.6K | No $183 | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $282 | No $30 | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $16 | No $10 | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $119K | No $29 | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $11K | No $41 | — | — |
| Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $2.4K | No $84 | — | — |