Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankndb1primmquietparcel
Record (consensus markets)45% (573–710, n=1283)63% (988–572, n=1560)50% (1106–1119, n=2225)41% (6766–9734, n=16500)
Consensus PnL$7.9M$3.2M$3.6M-$108K
Tracked asPM monthly #3PM monthly #104PM monthly #46PM monthly #260
Sides with the consensus76% (26 of 34 open)76% (100 of 132 open)no open consensus position78% (106 of 136 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • MMA +2 pts n=16, ROI +2%
Weakest topic—NFL −9 pts, n=139—Mentions −4 pts, n=646
Settled positions, side won97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4%99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%39% of 5625 at avg 41¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢11% (won 80% of 61)13% (won 15% of 168)5% (won 94% of 51)58% (won 1% of 3260)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 98% of 203)20% (won 39% of 256)41% (won 99% of 405)2% (won 39% of 118)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 100% of 201)24% (won 58% of 314)49% (won 99% of 485)4% (won 60% of 198)
Entries 70¢ and up20% (won 100% of 115)43% (won 93% of 550)5% (won 100% of 46)36% (won 96% of 2049)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankndb1primmquietparcel
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
No $407KNo $335K——
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $278KYes $11K——