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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BreakTheBankquietparcel
Record (consensus markets)45% (546–663, n=1209)44% (6093–7691, n=13784)
Consensus PnL$11.2M$34K
Tracked asPM monthly #2PM monthly #230
Sides with the consensus68% (39 of 57 open)84% (214 of 255 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=141, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=280, ROI +38%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Mentions −4 pts, n=594
Settled positions, side won97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%36% of 5067 at avg 39¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢10% (won 81% of 57)60% (won 1% of 3032)
Entries 30–50¢36% (won 98% of 201)2% (won 35% of 106)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 99% of 196)4% (won 60% of 183)
Entries 70¢ and up19% (won 100% of 109)34% (won 96% of 1746)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketBreakTheBankquietparcel
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $167KNo $1
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $20KNo $18
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $11KNo $59
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $1.2KNo $535
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $282No $154
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
Yes $259No $150
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $235KNo $559
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $122KNo $165
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $10KNo $180
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $6.8KNo $215
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
No $3.4KNo $289
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $2.5KNo $359
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $10No $2