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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
CustomTraderbeachboy40x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188RN1
Record (consensus markets)9% (57–568, n=625)68% (43–20, n=63)46% (131–154, n=285)47% (13868–15346, n=29214)
Consensus PnL$2.7K$5.8M$19.1M$13.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #547was PM monthly #24was PM monthly #715PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus88% (66 of 75 open)100% (2 of 2 open)no open consensus position94% (15 of 16 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +27 pts n=13, ROI +19%
  • Soccer +10 pts n=81, ROI +5%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicElections −7 pts, n=53NBA −6 pts, n=93College Basketball −12 pts, n=174—
Settled positions, side won13% of 204 at avg 21¢, ROI −3%57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢81% (won 7% of 165)3% (won 17% of 6)0% (won 17% of 6)10% (won 57% of 2537)
Entries 30–50¢11% (won 23% of 22)30% (won 57% of 63)42% (won 46% of 565)22% (won 94% of 5518)
Entries 50–70¢2% (won 0% of 5)54% (won 51% of 115)57% (won 51% of 766)36% (won 99% of 8928)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 83% of 12)14% (won 86% of 29)0% (won 100% of 4)32% (won 100% of 7821)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketCustomTraderbeachboy40x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188RN1
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $125Yes $66——