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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
CustomTraderjoseph00677BreakTheBank0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Record (consensus markets)7% (39–497, n=536)53% (10–9, n=19)45% (542–652, n=1194)46% (131–154, n=285)
Consensus PnL-$5.4K$5.6M$11.0M-$6.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #547PM monthly #2PM monthly #1was PM monthly #715
Sides with the consensus46% (6 of 13 open)no open consensus position86% (134 of 156 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topics
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topicElections −7 pts, n=53——College Basketball −12 pts, n=174
Settled positions, side won13% of 204 at avg 21¢, ROI −3%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢81% (won 7% of 165)12% (won 0% of 2)10% (won 82% of 56)0% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢11% (won 23% of 22)6% (won 0% of 1)36% (won 98% of 198)42% (won 46% of 565)
Entries 50–70¢2% (won 0% of 5)65% (won 73% of 11)35% (won 99% of 191)57% (won 51% of 766)
Entries 70¢ and up6% (won 83% of 12)18% (won 67% of 3)19% (won 100% of 107)0% (won 100% of 4)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

5 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketCustomTraderjoseph00677BreakTheBank0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $547—Yes $45K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $499—Yes $20K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $268—Yes $14K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $435—Yes $13K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $18—Yes $15K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4—Yes $9.3K—
Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4—Yes $5.0K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $3—Yes $2.1K—
Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Texas?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $2—Yes $2.1K—