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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Elias.Thornwell | CORGII | sainttroplay | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 78% (10078–2840, n=12918) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $84 | $4.5M | $4.4M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #837 | PM monthly #68 | was PM monthly #11 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 81% (459 of 568 open) | 0% (0 of 4 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 99% of 3321 at avg 90¢, ROI +2% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 60% of 98) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 0% | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 96% of 98) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 5% (won 98% of 168) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 89% (won 100% of 2957) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 0% | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | Elias.Thornwell | CORGII | sainttroplay | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $20 | — | — | Yes $4.2K |