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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HD45 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 88% (14–2, n=16) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | -$8.5K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #829 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 50% (3 of 6 open) | no open consensus position | 72% (74 of 103 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 82% of 11 at avg 64¢, ROI −5% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 27% (won 67% of 3) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 100% of 1) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 0% of 1) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 55% (won 100% of 6) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
4 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HD45 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.8K | — | No $411K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $3.0K | — | No $88K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $5.1K | — | Yes $72K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $339 | — | No $10K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $627 | — | Yes $2.2K | — |