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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HomelessnHoeless | ndb1 | RN1 | S-Works | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (136–127, n=263) | 63% (1095–632, n=1727) | 48% (17936–19365, n=37301) | 75% (2542–853, n=3395) |
| Consensus PnL | -$94K | $4.6M | $14.9M | $3.7M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #597 | PM monthly #110 | PM monthly #25 + pinned | PM monthly #53 |
| Sides with the consensus | 74% (14 of 19 open) | 72% (71 of 99 open) | 54% (35 of 65 open) | 75% (3 of 4 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | Esports ±0 pts, n=234 | NFL −8 pts, n=147 | — | Crypto −1 pts, n=46 |
| Settled positions, side won | 53% of 252 at avg 54¢, ROI +1% | 64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2% | 94% of 26124 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 75% of 2256 at avg 72¢, ROI +2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 5% (won 17% of 12) | 13% (won 14% of 187) | 10% (won 57% of 2594) | 6% (won 14% of 145) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 33% (won 42% of 84) | 19% (won 39% of 269) | 22% (won 94% of 5704) | 16% (won 48% of 367) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 47% (won 57% of 119) | 23% (won 57% of 328) | 35% (won 99% of 9204) | 23% (won 60% of 509) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 15% (won 76% of 37) | 44% (won 94% of 622) | 33% (won 100% of 8622) | 55% (won 96% of 1235) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HomelessnHoeless | ndb1 | RN1 | S-Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 1 Winner opposite sides · consensus Bilibili Gaming | T1 $28 | — | — | Bilibili Gaming $258K |