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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| HotDogs | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 94% (387–23, n=410) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $17K | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 89% (40 of 45 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (73 of 100 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | Elections ±0 pts, n=185 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 95% of 441 at avg 92¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 0% of 5) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% (won 100% of 1) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 71% of 17) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 95% (won 97% of 418) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | HotDogs | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $285 | — | No $40K |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.4K | — | No $10K |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $2.2K | — | Yes $2.2K |