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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| JohnLKellyJr | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (1270–1122, n=2392) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $37K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #705 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 1 open) | 68% (13 of 19 open) | 85% (55 of 65 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | F1 −3 pts, n=17 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 74% of 1723 at avg 55¢, ROI +20% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 9% (won 35% of 148) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 24% (won 66% of 412) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 51% (won 77% of 886) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 16% (won 95% of 277) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | JohnLKellyJr | RN1 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $65 | Commanders $82K | — |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | Commanders $125 | Commanders $32K | — |