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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| KiruaTrading | RN1 | BreakTheBank | surfandturf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (253–173, n=426) | 47% (13855–15340, n=29195) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 54% (225–189, n=414) |
| Consensus PnL | $21K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $9.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #985 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #326 |
| Sides with the consensus | 44% (4 of 9 open) | 100% (4 of 4 open) | 90% (146 of 163 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| not computed yet | ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −5 pts, n=37 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 55% of 315 at avg 48¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | — |
| Entries under 30¢ | 39% (won 18% of 124) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | — |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 14% (won 45% of 44) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | — |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 76% of 45) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | — |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 102) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | — |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | KiruaTrading | RN1 | BreakTheBank | surfandturf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.8K | — | No $202K | — |