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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
MrClaude11BreakTheBankRN10xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816
Record (consensus markets)53% (264–238, n=502)45% (542–652, n=1194)47% (13858–15341, n=29199)61% (495–320, n=815)
Consensus PnL$85K$10.6M$13.4M$4.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #884PM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinnedwas PM monthly #51
Sides with the consensus100% (1 of 1 open)90% (146 of 163 open)50% (4 of 8 open)50% (4 of 8 open)
Strongest topics
  • NHL +19 pts n=11, ROI +28%
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
Weakest topicSoccer −3 pts, n=86——Soccer ±0 pts, n=115
Settled positions, side won53% of 489 at avg 52¢, ROI 0%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5%
Entries under 30¢12% (won 20% of 60)10% (won 82% of 56)10% (won 57% of 2537)15% (won 29% of 125)
Entries 30–50¢34% (won 39% of 165)36% (won 98% of 198)22% (won 94% of 5518)34% (won 58% of 283)
Entries 50–70¢40% (won 61% of 197)35% (won 99% of 191)36% (won 99% of 8928)43% (won 69% of 354)
Entries 70¢ and up14% (won 93% of 67)19% (won 100% of 107)32% (won 100% of 7821)7% (won 80% of 60)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketMrClaude11BreakTheBankRN10xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Alexander Blockx
opposite sides · consensus Daniel Merida Aguilar
Daniel Merida Aguilar $20K——Alexander Blockx $553
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz
opposite sides · consensus Hubert Hurkacz
——Lorenzo Musetti $4.5KHubert Hurkacz $2.1K