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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OLOTH | beachboy4 | CORGII | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 95% (505–24, n=529) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | -$20K | $5.8M | $4.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (16 of 16 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 25% (1 of 4 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | |||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics ±0 pts, n=85 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 99% of 741 at avg 98¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 25% of 4) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 99% (won 99% of 737) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OLOTH | beachboy4 | CORGII | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $11K | — | — | No $184K |