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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| OrwellFactory | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (329–231, n=560) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.4K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #991 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 40% (4 of 10 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 60% of 559 at avg 58¢, ROI +2% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 12% (won 20% of 66) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 23% (won 38% of 128) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 67% of 180) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 33% (won 83% of 185) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | OrwellFactory | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $249 | — | No $184K | — |