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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PaddyAlpha | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 68% (541–258, n=799) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $22K | $3.5M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 60% (67 of 112 open) | no open consensus position | 74% (72 of 97 open) | 71% (15 of 21 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 82% of 928 at avg 78¢, ROI 0% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 10% of 146) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 67% of 27) | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 79% of 52) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 97% of 703) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | PaddyAlpha | 00gringo00 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $25 | — | Yes $18K | — |