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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PaddyAlpha | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 68% (541–258, n=799) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 56% (101–79, n=180) |
| Consensus PnL | $22K | $10.6M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #373 |
| Sides with the consensus | 58% (69 of 118 open) | 79% (53 of 67 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 82% of 928 at avg 78¢, ROI 0% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 10% of 146) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 7% (won 75% of 8) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 67% of 27) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 26% (won 93% of 29) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 79% of 52) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 42% (won 96% of 47) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 97% of 703) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 24% (won 96% of 27) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | PaddyAlpha | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $25 | Yes $18K | — |