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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| SpringlyFawl | RN1 | BreakTheBank | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 27% (1788–4902, n=6690) | 47% (13870–15347, n=29217) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 46% (131–154, n=285) |
| Consensus PnL | $29K | $14.8M | $11.0M | -$6.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #119 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #715 |
| Sides with the consensus | 60% (18 of 30 open) | 59% (13 of 22 open) | 86% (134 of 156 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Economy −12 pts, n=119 | — | — | College Basketball −12 pts, n=174 |
| Settled positions, side won | 21% of 2264 at avg 25¢, ROI −2% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 70% (won 2% of 1586) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 40% of 141) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 42% (won 46% of 565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 57% of 230) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 57% (won 51% of 766) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 14% (won 85% of 307) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% (won 100% of 4) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | SpringlyFawl | RN1 | BreakTheBank | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $2 | — | No $139 | — |