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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| WarewaPain | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 42% (459–646, n=1105) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | -$122K | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #654 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 25% (1 of 4 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics | |||
| Weakest topic | Tennis −5 pts, n=32 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 66% of 655 at avg 57¢, ROI +13% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 21% of 117) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 18% (won 58% of 120) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 30% (won 72% of 195) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 34% (won 90% of 223) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | WarewaPain | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.3K | No $184K | — |