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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| WarewaPain | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 41% (460–651, n=1111) | 47% (13855–15340, n=29195) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | -$123K | $13.4M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #654 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 50% (2 of 4 open) | 100% (4 of 4 open) | no open consensus position | 90% (146 of 163 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Tennis −5 pts, n=32 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 66% of 655 at avg 57¢, ROI +13% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 21% of 117) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 18% (won 58% of 120) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 30% (won 72% of 195) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 34% (won 90% of 223) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | WarewaPain | RN1 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.4K | — | — | No $202K |