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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| archaic | 00gringo00 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 88% (1305–177, n=1482) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (537–652, n=1189) |
| Consensus PnL | $165K | $3.5M | $4.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #19 | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 93% (54 of 58 open) | no open consensus position | no open consensus position | 85% (53 of 62 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | Mentions −1 pts, n=11 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 81% of 1740 at avg 79¢, ROI +1% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 4% of 275) | 0% | 0% | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 2% (won 30% of 27) | 0% | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 4% (won 72% of 68) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 79% (won 98% of 1370) | 0% | 0% | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | archaic | 00gringo00 | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.9K | — | — | No $202K |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.7K | — | — | Yes $85K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.5K | — | — | No $32K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $544 | — | — | Yes $170K |