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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| beachboy4 | mildwindow27 | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 67% (43–21, n=64) | 40% (4837–7348, n=12185) | 66% (877–458, n=1335) | 47% (14377–16003, n=30380) |
| Consensus PnL | $6.1M | $62K | $4.1M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | — | PM monthly #386 | PM monthly #12 | PM monthly #23 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 79% (182 of 230 open) | 71% (27 of 38 open) | 58% (55 of 95 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
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| |
| Weakest topic | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | Weather −3 pts, n=970 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 42% of 4506 at avg 44¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 54% (won 1% of 2428) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 3% (won 41% of 116) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 4% (won 56% of 202) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 39% (won 96% of 1760) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | beachboy4 | mildwindow27 | ndb1 | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | — | No $314 | No $7.1K | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | — | No $27 | No $3.2K | — |