Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
betdgendb1primm
Record (consensus markets)50% (1155–1174, n=2329)63% (993–578, n=1571)50% (1144–1155, n=2299)
Consensus PnL$108K$4.8M$3.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #874PM monthly #97PM monthly #47
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position72% (59 of 82 open)75% (3 of 4 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topicNFL −4 pts, n=565NFL −8 pts, n=147—
Settled positions, side won49% of 2386 at avg 48¢, ROI −1%64% of 1406 at avg 64¢, ROI +2%99% of 1027 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢16% (won 19% of 388)13% (won 14% of 187)5% (won 94% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢37% (won 40% of 874)19% (won 39% of 269)41% (won 99% of 421)
Entries 50–70¢35% (won 61% of 834)23% (won 57% of 328)49% (won 99% of 508)
Entries 70¢ and up12% (won 84% of 290)44% (won 94% of 622)5% (won 100% of 47)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.