← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| cigarettes | joseph00677 | surfandturf | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 49% (10105–10685, n=20790) | 50% (10–10, n=20) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 61% (495–320, n=815) |
| Consensus PnL | $633K | $5.3M | $4.1M | $4.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #38 | PM monthly #2 | was PM monthly #326 | was PM monthly #51 |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (305 of 456 open) | no open consensus position | 50% (1 of 2 open) | 50% (5 of 10 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Esports −5 pts, n=274 | — | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 |
| Settled positions, side won | 42% of 7704 at avg 43¢, ROI −3% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 49% (won 5% of 3769) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 15% (won 29% of 125) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 33% of 745) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 34% (won 58% of 283) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 9% (won 64% of 707) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 43% (won 69% of 354) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 32% (won 95% of 2483) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 7% (won 80% of 60) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | cigarettes | joseph00677 | surfandturf | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.8K | — | No $2.7K | Yes $6.4K |
| Will T1 win Worlds 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $2.7K | — | Yes $2.3K | — |
| Spread: Seahawks (-13.5) same side · consensus Bears | Seahawks $1.1K | — | — | Seahawks $3.1K |