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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| elmcap2 | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 88% (1222–161, n=1383) | 48% (12778–13831, n=26609) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.3M | $13.4M | $5.8M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #87 + pinned | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 99% (71 of 72 open) | 63% (87 of 138 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 67% (2 of 3 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Politics −2 pts, n=247 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 90% of 1881 at avg 90¢, ROI +1% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 1% (won 0% of 11) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 33% of 81) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 61% of 179) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 86% (won 97% of 1610) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | elmcap2 | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $706 | — | Over $1.1K |