← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lava-lava | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 42% (355–490, n=845) | 61% (495–321, n=816) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | $1.2M | -$352K | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #80 | was PM monthly #51 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 53% (51 of 96 open) | 72% (13 of 18 open) | 68% (48 of 71 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Finance −15 pts, n=14 | Soccer ±0 pts, n=115 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 40% of 843 at avg 38¢, ROI +2% | 60% of 822 at avg 48¢, ROI +5% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 48% (won 7% of 403) | 15% (won 29% of 125) | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 38% of 138) | 34% (won 58% of 283) | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 15% (won 69% of 125) | 43% (won 69% of 354) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 21% (won 95% of 177) | 7% (won 80% of 60) | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lava-lava | 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816 | ndb1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $620 | — | Yes $127K |
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $17K | — | No $300 |
| Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | Yes $7.4K | No $146 |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus No | Yes $3.1K | — | Yes $315K |