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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| lug | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 55% (1896–1560, n=3456) | 53% (10–9, n=19) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $67K | $5.6M | $11.0M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #876 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 75% (24 of 32 open) | no open consensus position | 91% (150 of 165 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | MLB −4 pts, n=166 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 54% of 3622 at avg 53¢, ROI +1% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 15% of 357) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 33% (won 45% of 1182) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 39% (won 56% of 1397) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 84% of 686) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | lug | joseph00677 | BreakTheBank | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $4.5K | — | Yes $31K | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $6.2K | — | Yes $274K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $507 | — | Yes $172K | — |