← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ndb1 | northdrawer | RN1 | sainttroplay | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 66% (875–459, n=1334) | 59% (10800–7655, n=18455) | 47% (14288–15920, n=30208) | 71% (10–4, n=14) |
| Consensus PnL | $4.1M | $43K | $14.8M | $4.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #162 | PM monthly #18 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (30 of 43 open) | 70% (52 of 74 open) | 46% (19 of 41 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
|
|
| Weakest topic | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | Weather −2 pts, n=942 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 40% of 5327 at avg 42¢, ROI −2% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 56% (won 0% of 2980) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 2% (won 44% of 129) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 4% (won 62% of 209) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) | 50% (won 100% of 5) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 38% (won 96% of 2009) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ndb1 | northdrawer | RN1 | sainttroplay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $23K | No $285 | — | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $73K | No $102 | — | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $3.2K | No $34 | — | — |