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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ndb1 | primm | RN1 | shineforever | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 65% (889–469, n=1358) | 50% (1078–1087, n=2165) | 47% (13371–14881, n=28252) | 55% (68–56, n=124) |
| Consensus PnL | $4.2M | $3.6M | $14.8M | $120K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #139 | PM monthly #52 | PM monthly #30 + pinned | PM monthly #222 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (33 of 45 open) | 73% (11 of 15 open) | 59% (126 of 212 open) | 57% (8 of 14 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | NFL −9 pts, n=139 | — | — | Soccer ±0 pts, n=26 |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 1288 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 99% of 987 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% | 38% of 104 at avg 37¢, ROI +2% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 15% of 168) | 5% (won 94% of 51) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) | 63% (won 5% of 66) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 39% of 256) | 41% (won 99% of 405) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) | 1% (won 100% of 1) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 24% (won 58% of 314) | 49% (won 99% of 485) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) | 1% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 93% of 550) | 5% (won 100% of 46) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) | 35% (won 100% of 36) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ndb1 | primm | RN1 | shineforever |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State vs. UMass opposite sides · consensus Ball State | — | Ball State $17K | UMass $4.3K | — |
| Spread: UMass (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ball State | — | Ball State $2.8K | UMass $479 | — |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: O/U 53.5 opposite sides · consensus Over | — | Over $2.9K | Under $3 | — |
| Spread: Toledo (-27.5) opposite sides · consensus Toledo | — | Toledo $1.8K | Sacramento State $9 | — |
| Spread: UMass (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Ball State | — | Ball State $1.0K | UMass $285 | — |
| Spread: Toledo (-30.5) opposite sides · consensus Sacramento State | — | Toledo $310 | Sacramento State $410 | — |
| Spread: Toledo (-26.5) opposite sides · consensus Toledo | — | Toledo $626 | Sacramento State $13 | — |
| Toledo vs. Sacramento State: O/U 51.5 same side · consensus Over | — | Over $3.4K | Over $116 | — |
| Spread: Ball State (-4.5) same side · consensus UMass | — | Ball State $11 | Ball State $445 | — |