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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ndb1 | quietparcel | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 66% (870–454, n=1324) | 44% (6093–7691, n=13784) | 47% (12761–14165, n=26926) |
| Consensus PnL | $4.2M | $34K | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #12 | PM monthly #228 | PM monthly #23 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (26 of 39 open) | 82% (198 of 242 open) | 66% (95 of 143 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
|
| Weakest topic | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | Mentions −4 pts, n=594 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 36% of 5067 at avg 39¢, ROI −2% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 60% (won 1% of 3032) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 2% (won 35% of 106) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 4% (won 60% of 183) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 34% (won 96% of 1746) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
3 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | ndb1 | quietparcel | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.7K | No $556 | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus No | No $7.4K | No $289 | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $1.4K | No $6 | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | No $161 | No $2 | — |