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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| nigiri99 | RN1 | beachboy4 | surfandturf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (5854–7018, n=12872) | 47% (13858–15341, n=29199) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 54% (225–189, n=414) |
| Consensus PnL | -$409K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $9.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #42 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | was PM monthly #326 |
| Sides with the consensus | 38% (42 of 110 open) | 50% (4 of 8 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) | 50% (1 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | Esports −2 pts, n=1324 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 |
| Settled positions, side won | 45% of 10411 at avg 46¢, ROI +1% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 20% (won 16% of 2120) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 20% (won 12% of 109) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 37% (won 42% of 3821) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 21% (won 46% of 114) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 32% (won 57% of 3361) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 33% (won 60% of 176) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 11% (won 79% of 1109) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 26% (won 82% of 137) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | nigiri99 | RN1 | beachboy4 | surfandturf |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Hubert Hurkacz same side · consensus Hubert Hurkacz | Lorenzo Musetti $752 | Lorenzo Musetti $4.5K | — | — |
| Bratislava 2: Michal Krajci vs Niels Visker same side · consensus Michal Krajci | Michal Krajci $5 | Michal Krajci $553 | — | — |