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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| realbengvir | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 53% (18–16, n=34) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 53% (10–9, n=19) |
| Consensus PnL | $26K | $5.8M | $11.0M | $5.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #870 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #2 |
| Sides with the consensus | 85% (23 of 27 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=10 | NBA −6 pts, n=93 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 76% of 21 at avg 79¢, ROI 0% | 57% of 213 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 14% (won 0% of 3) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 12% (won 0% of 2) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 0% of 2) | 30% (won 57% of 63) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 6% (won 0% of 1) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 65% (won 73% of 11) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 100% of 16) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 18% (won 67% of 3) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | realbengvir | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | joseph00677 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $28K | — | No $30K | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $9.0K | — | No $129 | — |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $730 | — | Yes $274K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $72K | — | Yes $172K | — |