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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| simpleman | sainttroplay | BreakTheBank | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 48% (487–520, n=1007) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 56% (101–79, n=180) |
| Consensus PnL | $91K | $4.4M | $10.6M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #990 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #373 |
| Sides with the consensus | 64% (14 of 22 open) | no open consensus position | 74% (72 of 97 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Culture −12 pts, n=15 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 53% of 993 at avg 50¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 38% (won 17% of 373) | 0% | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 7% (won 75% of 8) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 15% (won 41% of 150) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 26% (won 93% of 29) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 59% of 97) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 42% (won 96% of 47) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 38% (won 94% of 373) | 0% | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 24% (won 96% of 27) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.