← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| stupid22 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 95% (306–15, n=321) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | -$106K | $10.6M | $13.4M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #268 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 94% (31 of 33 open) | 74% (72 of 97 open) | 67% (16 of 24 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −7 pts, n=87 | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 96% of 373 at avg 95¢, ROI −1% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 2% (won 50% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 1% (won 75% of 4) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 97% (won 97% of 363) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | stupid22 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | 00gringo00 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $9.9K | Yes $1.1K | — | — |